With last night’s Parliamentary defeat of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s alleged plans to honour the referendum result, to leave the EU on October 31st with or without a deal, it seems likely that UK citizens can practically wave goodbye to ever leaving the EU in any sort of meaningful way. Unless the UK leaves with No Deal, it won’t leave at all. However, a general election could yet save the day.
The only deal the EU will consider is the one they told Remainer Prime Minister Theresa May to foist upon the nation. A deal so bad even fervent Remainers like Gina Miller think it little more than total capitulation to the demands of the EU. It is Brexit In Name Only (BRINO.) Yet some version of this horrific Remain ‘deal’ now seems the most likely outcome, unless the country goes to the polls.
Johnson’s announced prorogation of Parliament appeared to place a No Deal Brexit on the cards. That was until Parliament used Standing Order 24 to call an emergency debate. Remainer MP’s used it to propose legislation to delay Brexit.
Hilary Benn’s European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 6) Bill means, without a deal in place, and there aren’t sufficient parliamentary numbers to agree a No Deal Brexit, Johnson must request an extension from the EU until the 31st January 2020. The Remainers plan to pass this legislation, in an incredibly short time frame, and have it in place by Monday 9th, before prorogation takes effect.
For Leave voters the best hope was that Brexiteer Lords could use some tactical filibustering to delay the bill. However, while a series of amendments were presented for lengthy discussion, the Lords agreed to return the Bill to Parliament by Friday. At which point it will be presented for Royal Assent, seemingly removing any possibility of a No Deal Brexit and leaving the UK unable to negotiate anything other than May’s BRINO as a means out of the EU.
May’s BRINO (or anything close to it) would mean the UK remaining subject to EU regulations inside the European Customs Union while losing all say in the legislation which forms it. It hands over a resistant Northern Ireland to EU regulatory authority, allows none of the possible trade advantages of leaving the EU (ruling out any deal with the U.S) and requires UK tax payers to fork out at least £39 billion for the privilege. It isn’t anything like leaving the EU. From a leave perspective, in many respects, it is worse than Remain.
Is There A Feint Glimmer of Hope?
Johnson’s immediate response was to call for Parliament to proceed with a general election. While the UK faces a whole raft of significant issues, such as the ongoing privitisation of the NHS, this election will ostensibly be a single issue vote. A de facto confirmatory EU referendum.
However, thanks to the 2011 Fixed Term Parliament Act, with the next election planned for the Summer of 2022, a snap election can only be called with a two thirds majority vote in Parliament or following a vote of no confidence in the government. Therefore, in order for the Tories to call a snap election they need the cooperation of others. With the SNP and Lib Dem’s staunchly Remain their only hope is that Labour, who have said they will honour the terms (if not the spirit) of the referendum result, will support an early election.
The Brexit Party have offered a No Deal Brexit pact to the Tories, though it has yet to be confirmed. Farage has said the Brexit Party won’t contest Tory seats if the Conservatives stand on a No Deal Brexit manifesto. More than 65% of Labour constituencies voted to leave the EU. With Labour only willing to support BRINO, the Brexit party could significantly erode Labour’s core vote while leaving Conservative seats uncontested. Johnson would almost certainly lead a majority Tory government with additional support from a nascent Parliamentary Brexit Party.
This would create an overwhelming No Deal Brexit mandate in the Commons. A complete reversal of the cross party Remain coalition’s current position. So for now, despite their claims of fighting for democracy, the Remainer Parliament has blocked a snap election. They claim this is only until a No Deal Brexit is confirmed as being off the table. There is significant reason for doubt this claim.
Regardless of calling for an early election for the the last year, the Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn has said he will only commit his Party to an early election after the prospect of a No Deal Brexit is removed. If Benn’s bill receives Royal Assent as planned, Corbyn will have that assurance by Tuesday of next week.
Labour’s hopes to win that election, and the Remainers of retaining control of Parliament, would be dashed by the proposed Tory / Brexit Party pact. In all likelihood this would deliver a Parliament with the Brexiteer numbers to repeal Benn’s Act and put No Deal Brexit back in play. Labour’s statement on the issue hardly inspire Leave voters confidence:
“….the reality is deeply unpalatable a disastrous No Deal Brexit to take us into the arms of a trade deal with Donald Trump that would put America First and Britain a distant second……Let this Bill pass, and gain Royal Assent, then we will back an election so we do not crash out with a No Deal exit from the European Union.”
[Jeremy Corbyn 04/09/2019]
Clearly Labour’s bottom line is the absolute rejection of any possibility of a No Deal Brexit which, for Leave voters, is now the only viable exit strategy. It is no secret that Corbyn is by no means in control of his Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP.) A Tory / Brexit Party pact will not deliver the outcome the Remainer parliamentarians want. Therefore, if PLP Remainers commitment to avoiding a No Deal Brexit is unshakable, why would they ever agree to an early election that will almost certainly deliver one.
Corbyn spent more than 30 years on the back benches vociferously opposing the EU. His duplicity and willingness to sell out everything he supposedly believed in for the pursuit of power would be remarkable if it were not for one fact. He’s an MP.
Labour are currently tanking in the polls and their electoral chances will be damaged even further with a Tory / Brexit Party pact. Unless they support a general election, an act of electoral suicide on their part, Johnson won’t be able to call the snap election Leave voters need.
Without an agreed deal, an EU controlled extension to at least 31st January is all but assured. With Benn’s Act in place, Parliament is seemingly stuck in a Brexit impasse until at least 2022. The only feint glimmer of Brexiteer hope is that Labour convince themselves they can win an election. Of course, if Johnson rejects Farage’s advances, they might. If he does, then it strongly suggests that he has no intention of delivering a No Deal Brexit either.
So all eyes will turn to Johnson’s meeting with the European Council on the 17th and 18th of October. Johnson has stated his belief that Parliament, were it not for the Northern Ireland backstop, would pass May’s BRINO deal. What odds that he will return with precisely such am arrangement? A last minute compromise, keeping the UK in some form of Customs Union with the EU, making outside trade deals impossible, just without the Northern Ireland backstop. Perhaps the UK’s continued membership of the European Economic Area might help in that regard.
Should Johnson both reject the suggested Brexit Party pact and offer anything like May’s BRINO then we can be certain that his overtures towards a No Deal Brexit were nothing more that an act of political self preservation. Delivering a disastrous BRINO, he can protest his innocence, safeguard his own future electoral chances and claim he wanted No Deal but was forced to accept the Remainers BRINO. The stitch up will be complete.
A Remainer driven BRINO is nothing more than a tacit nod towards the referendum result. It will leave the door wide open for the UK to rejoin the EU when even Leave voters are compelled to accept their decision to leave has resulted in a situation worse than Remain. All thanks to the Remainer dominated Parliament.
How EU referendums Actually Work
The truth is, it is virtually impossible for any nation to extricate itself from, or avoid ratifying, EU treaties. Since 1972 there have been 48 European state referendums on either EU membership or the ratification of treaties leading to further European integration. Of the nine that went against the EU, seven were rerun with only Greenland successfully voting to leave the EU in 1982. Despite some very close results, not a single one of the other thirty nine referendums, which went in favour of the EU, were run again.
In 1972 Norway had to reject joining the EU for the second time. In 1992 Denmark rejected ratification of the Maastricht treaty. Because Maastricht required the agreement of all EU member states, the EU brokered some exceptions for Denmark in the 1992 Edinburgh Agreement and asked the question again, with Denmark eventually ratifying the treaty the following year in a rerun referendum.
In 1994 the Norwegians were again asked to join the EU and rejected it for the third time. In 2001 the Irish rejected ratification of the treaty of Nice, so the EU stated that Ireland didn’t have to join the common security and defence policy (CSDP) and the Irish were asked again, this time voting in favour.
As a fully compliant EU member state, in December 2017, The Republic of Ireland joined the EU Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) agreement. Thereby placing their forces under the centralised command and control of the EU. They are now participants in the CSDP, only 18 years after rejecting the idea.
In 2005 both the French and the Dutch rejected the Treaty establishing the Constitution of Europe (TCE.) Again, because the treaty required universal ratification from all member states, following the French and Danish decisions, planned referendums in the UK, Czech Republic, Poland, Portugal, the Republic of Ireland and Denmark were abandoned. The EU, realising that strong public support for their project didn’t exist, took a different tack instead.
In 2007 the EU offered up the Treaty of Lisbon. It amended the Maastricht & Nice Treaties, as well as the 1957 Treaty of Rome, to create the Treaties on European Union (TEU) and the Treaties on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU.)
It introduced the idea of majority voting, eroding the power of member nations vetoes in a number of policy areas. It removed decision making power in the EU away from member state legislatures, placing much more power in the hands of the unelected EU Commission and supposedly Members of the European Parliament (MEP’s.)
The unelected EU Commission is the sole body responsible for proposing all EU legislation, MEP’s have no say in the matter. The unelected Commission is the politically independent executive arm of the EU. As a political organisation the EU has no elected executive. MEP’s are free to ‘suggest’ amendments to policies dreamed up by the Commission, and can reject them. However, as is the EU way, they repeatedly ask MEP’s the same question, while strong arm tactics and corruption are applied, until they give the right answer. There is no mechanism at all for any elected representative to form EU legislation. As recently seen in the EU Commission’s imposition of their new leadership upon a bewildered EU parliament, the EU doesn’t do democratic oversight.
The Treaty of Lisbon was passed without any notable public vote, save for Ireland. Several times bitten and very shy, the EU opted to pass the treaty through the national legislatures, preferring to pretend that this gave it democratic legitimacy. There is no possible ambiguity in their intention, which was clearly to create a treaty so opaque (270 pages) very few Parliamentarians, let alone members of the public, could even understand it.
Speaking to Le Monde in 2007 Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, president of the European Convention whose comical pretensions were to improve ‘democracy and transparency,’ said:
“The latest brainwave is to preserve part of the innovations of the constitutional treaty, but hide them by breaking them up into several texts. The most innovative provisions would become simple amendments to the treaties of Maastricht and Nice. The technical improvements would be regrouped in a colourless, harmless treaty. The texts would be sent to national parliaments, which would vote separately. Thus public opinion would be led to adopt, without knowing it, the provisions that we dare not present directly.”
[Valéry Giscard d’Estaing 2007]
In the UK at the time, successive Labour Prime Ministers and staunch europhiles, Tony Blair & then Gordon Brown, despite promising referendums on further European integration, blatantly reneged on those promises. This was entirely in keeping with the wishes of the deep state milieu behind the European project.
Their arguments were that the new Lisbon Treaty wasn’t anything like the rejected TCE and therefore didn’t meet their criteria for a public vote. This was an absurd suggestion. The House of Commons European Scrutiny Committee analysed the text of the TCE and Lisbon and stated they were “substantially equivalent.” Given that polling showed more than 80% of the UK wanted a referendum, the EU establishment, both in Brussels and the UK, decided there was no way they were going to risk another public rejection.
Unable to avoid the constitutional requirement for a referendum in Ireland, when, in 2008, the Irish rejected ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, the EU decided to completely abandon honesty in respect to troublesome plebiscites. They instead issued the Irish Guarantees stating that Ireland won’t have to accept closer EU military union, could maintain its policy on abortion and wouldn’t see its power on the Commission diminished.
The Irish agreed to ratify the Lisbon treaty as a result. Unfortunately and entirely predictably, the Irish Guarantee wasn’t worth the paper it was written on. Nine years later the Oireachtas (Irish Parliament) signed up to PESCO anyway.
Only Greenland actually managed to make a vote to leave the EU stick, and only Norway, with it’s immense oil wealth, and Switzerland, with its banking empire, have avoided membership following rerun referendums.
In short there is no reason at all to believe that any decision taken by a sovereign nation, that goes against the wishes of the EU Commission, will ever be respected. It certainly won’t be enacted. As is now patently obvious, the same is true for the UK’s attempted getaway.
There’s No Leaving the EU
As we have discussed, EU referendum results that go against the diktats of the EU are rerun until they either get the result they want, usually through subterfuge, or, on very rare occasions, finally accept they are flogging a dead horse. Despite the fact that the UK voted to leave the EU by a clear 4% margin, the Remainer majority in Parliament has no intention at all of upholding that decision, and they never have. The people’s stated opinion on the matter is irrelevant.
Both Conservatives and Labour stood on manifestos promising to uphold the referendum result in the last election. With good reason. 148 Of 232 Labour and 247 0f 327 Conservative constituencies voted to leave the EU in 2016. In the 2017 General Elections, a deceleration of their commitment to respect the referendum result was a necessity for both. If we don’t see an election and Johnson delivers BRINO we can be certain those promises were false.
As soon as they were elected, Tory rebels and the vast majority of Labour MP’s, despite huge constituency margins to leave, set about making the UK’s exit from the EU an impossibility.
A N0 Deal Brexit never was the ‘leap off a cliff edge’ the UK Remainer Parliament, and its overwhelmingly Remainer propaganda machine, the mainstream media (MSM,) would have us believe. In a No Deal scenario there is an option for the UK to temporarily remain the European Economic Area (EEA) and seek provisional membership of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA.)
This was recently suggested by two of the four EFTA member states Switzerland and Iceland. No one in Parliament, including the supposed Brexiteers led by Johnson, have ever mentioned this possibility. Nor the discussions they held with the Swiss on the issue. Presumably because it would render a potential No Deal Brexit straightforward and would virtually eradicate any short term trade or business disruption.
Regardless of Johnson’s stiff rhetoric, there is seemingly no genuine Parliamentary will to leave the EU. The voters be damned.
The referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU asked a very simple question. Do you wish to remain in the EU or leave. Since that decision was taken the Remainer tactic has been to suggest variously that Leave voters are too stupid to know what they voted for; to claim they only want to leave the EU political and economic federal project because they are racists; that they don’t care about jobs and services in the places they live and work in, hate education, loathe the NHS and want to destroy their own children’s future.
So called project fear, which completely failed to sway Leave voters prior to the referendum, continued to be hammered home after the decision was taken. However, it never worked and has failed to impress leave voters. Leavers, far from being imbeciles, aren’t daft enough to believe everything they are told by the MSM.
In fact recent polls suggest that attitudes have hardened. If anything there has been a small swing from Remain to Leave. There is no democratic mandate in the UK to remain in the EU. The referendum result and subsequent elections all reflect this reality.
Despite the protestation of Remainers, from a democratic perspective, they lost. It is as simple as that. Luckily for them, Parliament doesn’t care what the people think. Though they should be wary of celebrating the fact. Parliament does as it pleases, irrespective of the fact it has no right to do so. Inevitably, many Remainers will soon come to realise that it doesn’t care about them either.
The Withdrawal Agreement Deal Nonsense
The whole concept of a Withdrawal Agreement ‘deal’ is a complete misnomer. There is absolutely nothing in the relevant Withdrawal Agreement (WA) clause, Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which requires any country to strike a ‘deal’ in order to leave the EU. It has nothing to say about future trade arrangements, all of which were supposed to be negotiated after the UK leaves the EU. WA deal or not.
However, by working closely with the EU, Remainers have created the mythology of the need for a WA deal. For its part, all the EU had to do was ensure any deal they offered was so bad there wouldn’t be enough idiots to ever vote for it. With this strategy safely in place, the next step of the UK Remainer Parliament was to engineer out any chance of the UK leaving without the completely unnecessary deal. They took a big step towards achieving that ambition last night.
Where Do Leave Voters Go Next?
Absent an election with a Conservative / Brexit Party pact in place, or in the event of a Johnson BRINO, Leave voters must face reality.
Parliament does not serve the people. It serves the globalist power structure of which it is but a small part. Global corporations rule the the world, not governments. It is naiveté of immense proportions to imagine otherwise. You can carry on voting if you like but unless you vote the right way your vote will never count. Voting is merely a ceremonial act to anoint the next corporate puppet.
The EU is a globalist project of the ruling corporations who continually seek to centralise all political and economic power. The UK referendum result went the wrong way and was therefore doomed from the outset.
Remainers will undoubtedly believe their protests have made a difference, but they haven’t. Their protests were paid for and facilitated by the globalist banking cartels who have engineered the UK remaining in the EU. Their only purpose was to give the impression of an overwhelming public will to remain. Referendum & election results prove this was always a fabrication.
Any protest which genuinely stands against the established order will be heavily policed, under reported by the MSM (if at all) and usually end in the kettling of protesters before they are charged on horse back or tear gassed. We only have to look at the recent brutal suppression of the Gilet Jaune in France, or to the history of the Miners strike, to understand this. If a protest is both widely reported by the MSM and allowed to proceed unhindered, it is because it is in the interests of the ruling globalists.
Remain protests were encouraged and tolerated because they serve the establishment’s agenda. Remainers are merely the unwitting dupes of a global system that cares nothing for them or their families. They are not Leave voters enemies.
If Brexit isn’t delivered, Leavers may be tempted to stand on the barricades themselves. However, no amount of wailing or fighting against the system will ever change anything. The whole system is wholly corrupt. You can’t vote your way out of it and any mass Leave protests will be full of agent provocateurs whose role it will be to start violence, allowing the state to brutally crush it.
The MSM will then report that all those who want to leave the EU are violent, right wing extremists. Just as they have to date. Don’t fall for it.
There is a way to stop this abuse by the state. It is simply to ignore it.
In 1990 the Prime Minister Margaret Thatchers was ignominiously ousted because her ill fated Poll Tax was resisted by the people. The narrative we have been given is that it was the Poll Tax riots which led to her downfall. They didn’t.
The Conservative government were unable to enforce their tax because millions refused to pay it. The people ignored the government, some risking imprisonment for doing so, but the state was unable to enforce its will. The people denied it and the illusion of state authority crumbled. The state was absolutely powerless to do anything about it. Consequently, this has been practically written out of history. We should heed this lesson.
Stop voting for these people to impose their will on you. What an earth do you think you are voting for? Your vote means one thing and one thing only to the globalist who own everything. It reassures them you still believe in their system.
While you do, they can keep offering up their puppets for you to ‘select.’ It allows them to maintain the lie that you have a stake in the way the nation you live in is governed. You don’t. As long as you hold on to this delusion, you can be controlled through fear and the hope of change. It is all a deception designed to keep you doing as you are told.
Everything you do, every day, is a political act. What you buy and who from really does matter. If you genuinely seek change then start acting politically. Not by marching or hurling abuse at the opponents given to you, or by placing a meaningless cross in an inconsequential box once every few years, but by arming yourself with knowledge and acting accordingly.
State decree exists because enough people believe in state authority. They give the state this power only by virtue of their faith in it. Without your trust the state has no power at all. People actually believe that men and women are incapable of governing themselves but a tiny minority of men and women are capable of governing millions. It is a ridiculous proposition.
Let it go.
Please consider supporting my work. I really need your help if I am going to continue to provide the research and analysis that you value on a full-time basis. You can support my work for less than the price of a cup of coffee via my donor page or alternative become a paid subscriber to my Substack.
I extend my gratitude to my editor, who has provided invaluable contributions to my articles since October 2021 (but who, for personal reasons, prefers to remain anonymous).
Please feel free to share anything from iaindavis[.]com excluding any and all third party content. I use a Creative Commons License. All I ask is that you give credit to the author and clearly mark any changes you make. Please share my work widely. Censorship is increasing and we need to get this information out there. If you value what I do then please consider supporting my work. Many thanks.
Another excellent article demonstrating power can always get what it wants merely by being the last man standing.
Many thanks. Glad you found it interesting.