[Disclaimer: I am not medically qualified and if you feel unwell you should always seek medical advice]
Coronavirus has seemingly thrown the world into disarray as countries around the globe apparently struggle to contain the outbreak of this “novel strain” of an otherwise common viral infection. The World Health Organisation (WHO) have declared the COVID 19 pandemic and in the UK the government has convened another Cabinet Office Briefing Room A (COBRA) meeting, the highest level of emergency planning, to deal with what the mainstream media have been quick to call a deadly virus.
As the public panic buy and new terms like “self isolate” and “social distancing” emerge from the government’s response to COVID 19, the politicians and the mainstream media (MSM) are united in their certainty that abject fear is warranted. So let’s consider the information they’ve used to make their determination and ask if it justifies the alarm and the draconian legislation bobbing up in its wake.
Fear Fear and More Fear
The MSM, global authorities like the WHO and the UK Government have seemingly gone to great lengths to terrify people to death in response to the claimed COVID 19 pandemic. The new Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, announcing a £30 bn investment package to tackle the “emergency,” invoked the spirit of the Blitz saying “We will get through this together.” Prime Minister Boris Johnson presented the government’s “action plan” outlining how the government would protect us against what it calls “a significant challenge for the entire world.”
It’s a crisis, a pandemic, an emergency! According the Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney this threatens not only our lives but also an economic shock as the world struggles to cope with the horror.
This message was hammered home by Prime Minister Boris Johnson who spoke to the MSM after the COBRA meeting today. Speaking about minimising the suffering he told the nation:
I must level with you. Many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time.
With the MSM claiming hundreds of thousands of British people could die and the WHO saying they are deeply concerned about “alarming levels of spread and severity” it’s no wonder the public are scared witless. So it’s a shame no one remembered to tell the public about the promise of an inexpensive and widely available preventative treatment for COVID 19.
Reality Check
Today (12/03/2020) there are 596 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK and sadly 10 people have died. COVID 19 appears to be a nasty infection with a higher mortality rate than most other forms of more common diseases, such as influenza. The current UK mortality rate of 1.7% is 17 times higher than we might expect from the flu.
Putting this into perspective, currently there are about 120,000 cases of COVID 19 that have been diagnosed world wide. However, this oft quoted ever increasing number is itself somewhat deceiving. It takes no account of the tens of thousands who have fully recovered nor does it inform you that the rate of new infections are dropping sharply in China.
According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), of the total number of people infected, nearly 4,300 are said to have died. Which suggests a mortality rate approaching an alarming 3.6%. This is considerably higher than indicated by Chinese Studies which have reported mortality rates varying between 1.4% and 1.7%. So we might immediately wonder where the WHO’s statistics are coming from.
While this suggests a higher mortality rate than influenza the numbers aren’t even comparable. The Center For Disease Control (CDC) estimates, in the U.S. alone, flu has conservatively caused 34 million illnesses, 350,000 hospitalisations and at least 20,000 deaths this season so far.
The UK Office of National Statistics recorded 7,551 alcohol related UK deaths in 2018 and 6,507 people committed suicide. Yet the government doesn’t consider alcohol a national emergency and mental health services remain underfunded and largely forgotten. The annual number of deaths from coronary heart disease, for people under the age of 75, is more than 40,000 per year. Though again government doesn’t consider this a “crisis” either. Public Health England (PHE) estimate influenza kills 17,000 people annually in the UK.
If we consider the alleged scale of mortality from COVID 19, it barely registers on the charts. The monumental level of fear doesn’t remotely reflect objective reality. But reason for scepticism doesn’t end there.
Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics
On page 12 of the Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) the research team reports that those at the highest risk of mortality are older people with underlying illnesses such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and cancer. Each one of which can also be fatal in their own right. There are odd anomalies in the data too. For some unknown reason, overall mortality in Wuhan was reported as 3.8% yet mortality elsewhere in China was 0.7%.
Speaking earlier today the UK Governments Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty stated that he estimated about 1% of infected people could die. He based this upon the Chinese data. He also revealed that there is no test for people who may have been infected but have no symptoms, which makes calculation of mortality rates practically meaningless.
Like China the UK’s approach is only to test people who present with symptoms following medical consultation and advice. Therefore as most infected people will recover at home, claims about mortality rates need to be treated accordingly. South Korea have tested their population more extensively. As a result their COVID 19 mortality rate is 0.6%. Far lower than the alarming suggestion of the WHO. There is good reason to treat the WHO’s statistics with caution.
Whitty also stated, based upon the Chinese data, that mortality rates increase significantly for the high risk groups. The Joint WHO team claimed this was as high as 22% in China for the over 80 age group and between 7.6% and 13.2% for the over 60’s and high risk co-morbidity group. Perhaps this accounts for the wild variance between Chinese study data and the WHO’s reported 3.6%, but it seems unlikely. How much credibility we can give these figures is doubtful.
In Annex D of their report, published only two weeks ago, the WHO listed what they called their knowledge gaps regarding COVID 19. They don’t know how it started, aren’t sure how it is transmitted and are uncertain about it’s shedding mechanism. They don’t know what the social, economic and environmental contributing risk factors are nor how seasonal variability affects it. The Chinese RT-PCR tests diagnosing it were found to be unreliable as the specificity of identifying nucleic acids were vague. Therefore, so are their statistics.
Chinese statistics were further confused by a lack of RT-PCR testing kits. They switched to scanning the lungs for ‘signs’ of the virus. This saw recorded infection rates jump by nearly 15,000 in a single day though this was entirely the result of administrative changes and no reflection of reality. Since then most Chinese patients have been tested using CT scans which show symptoms which “indicate” the presence of COVID 19 but don’t test for it. Casting yet more doubt on the statistics the UK government are apparently basing their alarming response upon.
For those familiar with the term, we appear to be moving into the territory of “all the hallmarks” of COVID 19. The UK government have opened up RT-PCR testing centres across the country so hopefully they won’t run out of test kits and the statistics will be more informative.
What About The Good News?
If you’ve been exposed to the MSM’s coverage of COVID 19 and have taken the political statement to heart, then, in all probability, you are extremely worried about the pandemic. As we have just discussed, perhaps cause for alarm isn’t quite as well founded as we are led to believe. While the post COBRA statements, earlier today, painted a dire picture, one thing notable from the press conference was the absence of the relatively good news on COVID 19. News the MSM seem incapable of reporting.
The WHO-China joint team also noted in their report:
[Mortality] has reduced over time to 0.7% for patients with symptom onset after 1 February. The Joint Mission noted that the standard of care has evolved over the course of the outbreak.
So good quality care looks like it can make a big difference.
The foggy statistics, shifting narrative, always focused upon maximising fear and panic rather than encouraging calm reflection, the apparent (claimed) lack of knowledge about COVID 19 and strange anomalies in mortality and infection rates, depending on who you listen too, have left some in the medical profession bemused and perhaps a little annoyed. The noted epidemiologist Tom Jefferson, writing in the British Medical Journal said:
I often get stopped in the street, or in a bar, or the gym, and asked about COVID 19….. There is….one question that my Italian friends often ask me to which I have no answer: how is this different from the seasonal influenza-like illnesses we are used to?…..Well, the virus serotype is new, sure, but is that enough to justify the frenetic media attention?……Perhaps the death rate, the ratio of confirmed cases to deaths, could explain the furore? It seems to be anything between 0.18% to 4.9% (depending on where you look), on average below that of other coronavirus outbreaks. And deaths seem to be concentrated in older age groups and in people with pre-existing morbidities…….So I cannot answer my nagging doubts, there does not seem to be anything special about this particular epidemic of influenza-like illness.
Most remarkably, for some seemingly inexplicable reason, the MSM and the government haven’t told you about the strong likelihood of relatively simple, low cost effective treatment for COVID 19. Instead they seem fixated on working with their corporate partners to produce an extremely expensive vaccine.
One of Europe’s most respected and published experts in infectious diseases Prof. Didier Raoult, has made it abundantly clear that COVID 19 may be successfully treated with the widely available, relatively inexpensive anti malaria drug Chloroquine. Chinese authorities have established it’s effectiveness and Japanese trials are nearing completion, demonstrating very promising results.
Of course it is wise to exercise the precautionary principle. Government advice to stay at home if you are sick and do what we can to limit the spread of COVID 19 makes sense. However, pulling a sicky is practically a British sport and reasons for abject fear and social upheaval are not evident.
The next time you turn on the telly to endure the never ending fear porn or read a scary COVID 19 headline in an MSM propaganda rag; when you hear a politician or financial expert claim this is a global disaster and we all need to self isolate in our socially distanced micro verses please remember to believe nothing you hear and half of what you see. Then, if you feel well enough, get yourself out in the sunshine, meet up with friends and have a laugh.
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Aren’t the rates of contagion higher with this particular strain of corona virus? Aren’t the statistics of new cases and the mortatility rate being tracked by John Hopkins troubling? They trouble me:
I don’t know about you Iain, but whatever you think of the data gathering look at the increase in corona virus cases being reported worldwide and collated by John Hopkins University:
7th March: 43,141 cases.
Now look at the data 11 days later today:
18th March: 214,894 cases.
That’s a 398% increase in cases.
Now look at the increase in mortality rates:
It’s 757% in 11 days. Any alarm bells ringing yet?
Do people understand exponential growth?
Do people understand that when Spain had 3,000 cases recently (which has now grown to 13,716 cases) it was calculated in a worst case scenario (and yes we’re still trying to understand the the viruses contagious potential) it’s estimated that there could be about 250,00 cases within a month, here’s the quote:
Britain’s chief science adviser, Patrick Vallance, said Thursday that the United Kingdom had 600 confirmed cases, which he said means that 5,000 to 10,000 people there probably are infected.
If the virus continues to infect people at its current rate, which is not a certainty, a European country such as Spain, with 3,000 cases, could see 250,000 infected individuals in about a month, based on doubling times of five days.
“Those are the numbers that epidemiologists are expecting,” said Roy Anderson, professor of infectious disease at Imperial College London.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/flatten-the-curve-coronavirus/2020/03/12/a648883c-6460-11ea-8a8e-5c5336b32760_story.html
Then there seems to be a resistance by some on the effectiveness of social distancing.
What does the 1918 US Influenza Outbreak teach us? It clearly shows us that when self isolation policies are enacted by authorities within days of a viral contagion, that it can reduce the fatality rate and save lives by as much 5 times compared to waiting weeks after the first cases are recorded.
I think it’s important to understand mathematical modelling of rates of contagion to bring home how serious this contagion could be if it’s not dealt with properly through massive testing programs and self isolation.
Do I think that the MSM has gone overboard causing a panic? Yes… and no.
Let’s take an example from history:
The US Philadelphia v’s St Louis 1918 Influenza outbreak.
Clearly delays in implementing social distancing cost more lives in Philadelphia compared to St Louis. Officials in Philadelphia procrastinated (just as the UK Government has done) only implementing public health interventions until after the flu virus had already spread. St Louis on the other hand enacted social distancing after the first reported cases within 2 days, resulting in a death rate 5 times lower than Philadelphia’s.
This graphic will help explain the point clearly:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/mossa24bgvvuw4b/socialdistancing.png?dl=0
I’m certainly not going to be complacent with these kind of statistics and not following social isolation WILL cost lives.
Be safe, not sorry.
Thanks for the reply and I do both understand those concerns and appreciate that caution is warranted. I am certainly not suggesting that people (especially over 70’s and those with underlying health conditions) shouldn’t self isolate, nor that people shouldn’t follow PH advice if they are ill or that we shouldn’t try to minimise infection.
You offer some interesting statistics in your response which are worth examining. As I pointed out in the article the growth in case numbers globally is somewhat misleading because for some reason the WHO have decided not to highlight recovery. So while 215,000 cases in total may have been “recorded” at the time of writing 83,000 have recovered and approx 9000 are said to have died. So that’s 132,000 active cases and an overall CFR of over 4%. Which makes COVID19 seem extremely deadly compared to, for example, seasonal flu. More than 40 times more lethal. Or so it would appear from the WHO statistics.
However, PHE reported seasonal flu CFR are estimates based on projected overall infection numbers. As you stated:
So lets take a lower mean from that confidence range and say approximately 10 times as many people are infected than recorded by the WHO. Let’s also put aside recovery as they do. That means that conservatively 2,150,000 people are infected. With 9000 deaths approximately that’s a CFR of just over 0.4% and, as we know, those deaths are overwhelmingly among the most vulnerable.
This means an estimated CFR of about 4 times that of normal seasonal flu. It also indicates an actual recovery rate of 99.6%. So perhaps some perspective is warranted rather than the abject panic currently being fostered by the State and its media.
Especially seeing as China, a country of 1.4 bn people, are reporting no new cases today: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/world/asia/china-coronavirus-zero-infections.html
*mortatility = mortality
It’s all gone mad, fella!
104 deaths in uk is horrid if they could be stopped, but the fact that this ‘killer’ virus doesn’ t’ yet’ kill Children…. I’d say it’s a bad flu really…
Flu kills 17000 in England per year.
I’d personally like to know what this emergency action is actually a practice for…
Alright mate. Yes it’s a nasty infection no doubt. I don’t think this is preparation for anything. I think this is it in terms of resetting the global economy. Watch this space 😉
It seems very likely that we are not getting the true world wide stats on Covid-19, especially from China, Japan, India, Mexico, Russia and Africa. I believe that things are a lot worse than we are being told. So keep inside, don’t go anywhere that you don’t have to, where a mask and gloves, and stay away from others. Throw away your gloves and mask or put them in the wash with your clothes when you get home and put a bit of ammonia in the wash and have a shower before interacting with your family.
Thanks for the comment Linda. I agree we should maintain the precautionary measures to protect the most vulnerable. I’m not sure why you single out China, Japan, India, Mexico, Russia and the whole of Africa for poor statistical reporting. If you have any evidence to support that opinion I’d be interested to see it.
Interesting read of a past that seems to have happened ages ago.
The former chairman, Mr Wolfgang juggles quite a few numbers one after another.
The one i remembered is that corona-viruses take up 10% of all viruses.
Fact is that coronary heart failure takes a very high number of people to the afterlife.
Even God is concerned about available land house he promised every new arrival and since life in a human form on earth is now considered hell, heavens gates are wide open and Petrus was forcefully retired.
Yes these numbers now more than ever spin every news item on the 8 o’clock news to bizar new highs humanity cannot comprehend because most humans reverted into a state where they were only guided by emotions and lacked sensible cognitive abilities.
Their sanity is now drenched by every single opinion a significant other states in the MSM and their brains have literally shrunk 13,7% in just the last couple of months and it’s predicted this shrinkage will increase to a whopping 32,1% before anyone says :”he has no clothes on !”
Or these electron microscope photos are nothing but complex drawings by an artist who swallowed 3 stamps in one go 😉
greetings from the Netherlands
Shaman O’Sanity
(humanist, animist, anarchist)
ps. I’m going to try and find me a volunteer job that lets me visit or just help old people in this abnormal absence of social contacts they were already longing for pre-corona…
Excellent idea. Yep we need to support people in our local communities.